Scenarios for int. conflict resolution after the 2024 US presidential election

International Workshop | The Future of Transatlantic Relations #FOTAR2024

Russia’s ongoing aggression on Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war or enduring conflicts in Sudan, Myanmar, or Yemen: violence is increasing in multiple parts of the world. Meanwhile, multilateralism is under strain, limiting opportunities for conflict resolution and making traditional peacebuilding methods ineffective. The 2024 US presidential election thus comes at a crucial time for efforts to end wars and build peace around the world. Fears of violence also persist within the US after the last presidential election culminated in the January 6 US Capitol attack. A new approach to resolving conflicts and building peace is urgently needed.

To analyse the 2024 US election’s potential implications for conflict resolution and peacebuilding across the globe, the Europa-Kolleg Hamburg (EKH) and Bundeskanzler-Helmut-Schmidt-Stiftung (BKHS) have invited 13 early career professionals for a #FOTAR2024 Scholarship Programme.

Each participant is to prepare a draft policy brief of 3-4 pages in which they outline plausible scenarios for international conflict resolution and peacebuilding after the US election, depending on which party takes over the White House. In a two-day in-person workshop in Hamburg, Germany, the participants receive in-depth feedback and mentoring by peers and experienced discussants on their policy brief. Following the workshop, EKH and BKHS will publish the revised policy briefs in the lead-up to election day. The policy briefs are to focus on one of the following issue areas:

  • Prospects for conflict resolution in 2024 and beyond
  • Backlash against gender equality and the future of peacebuilding
  • The UN’s role in coming crises of international peace and security

Our panel scholars

PANEL 1

Prospects for conflict resolution in 2024 and beyond

Democrats and Republicans disagree about many aspects of US foreign policy and both parties are also internally divided. This is perhaps most evident with regard to the wars in Gaza or Ukraine, but conflicts elsewhere may also be affected by shifts in US foreign policy.

As the 2024 US election takes place in a global environment characterised by a return to power politics and a weakening of international institutions, what will its outcome mean for future trajectories of conflicts around the world and prospects for their resolution?

Picture of Aleena Khan

Aleena Khan

Leiden University 


Research question: How does the Democratic, and more specifically the Biden campaign’s, stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict impact its ability to be re-elected and, subsequently, conflict resolution initiatives towards de-escalating this conflict?

Isabell Kump

Policy Advisor with the Munich Security Conference (MSC)


Research question: What can be expected from another Biden or Trump administration for peace and security in West Africa and the Sahel? 

© Michael Kuhlmann

Anta Maulana Nasution

National Research and Innovation Agency of The Republic of Indonesia                     

Research question: To what extent will the outcome of the 2024 US Election impact the stability and security of the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea? What will be the US's new foreign policy approach post-2024 election to resolve conflicts in the South China Sea without exacerbating tensions with China?

 

Polina Andrea Murygina

Sanctions Specialist - Center for Transparency and Accountability (Lithuania) 


Research question: What are the potential implications of the 2024 US presidential election outcomes on the continuity or modification of US support for Ukraine and its populace?
 

 

 

Dr Alina Nychyk

ETH Zurich / Zurich University of Applied Sciences


Research question: What are the perspectives for peace in Russian-Ukrainian war post US elections 2024?

© Khrystyna Pekar

PANEL 2

Backlash against gender equality and the future of peacebuilding

Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided on women’s and girls’ reproductive rights. Abortion laws will play an important role in the 2024 US election. This is not only a domestic policy issue but has international implications, as the watered-down 2019 UN resolution on helping survivors of war-related sexual violence shows. 

As threats and attacks against women and LGBTQI* communities continue to rise globally, what are the consequences for states implementing feminist foreign policies and for approaches to peacebuilding?
 

Luisa Kern

Mercatorfellow at the United Nations Centre for Policy Research


Research question: Can an intersectional approach to peacebuilding and joining forces of the WPS and YPS agendas drive forward conflict resolution in the face of persistent crises?
 

 

Ines Meyer

Research question: How could the 2024 U.S. Presidential elections affect global strategies for preventing and prosecuting conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) and the implications for states committed to implementing feminist foreign policies?

Matthias Rétel

Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security (GRIP)

Research question: How would the next US administration approach masculinities in formulating its (foreign) policies, and how would this impact peacebuilding efforts?

Hayriye Simay Tunçkiliç

College of Europe in Natolin (MA) and the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Türkiye (TOBB) 

Research question: How does the participation of youth shape the future of US politics and feminist foreign policy around the world in promoting inclusive peacebuilding efforts?


© College of Europe in Natolin

 

 

 

 

PANEL 3

The UN’s role in coming crises of international peace and security

The US election takes place in the context of eroding multilateral cooperation. In the UN, this trend is linked to growing geopolitical competition between major powers, diverging interests of countries of the Global North and South or the crisis of the UN’s traditional tools, such as peacekeeping operations. A Republican administration will likely present a further challenge. 

How can the UN be made fit to deal with future crises of international peace and security and what future form of peace operations is both possible and desirable?

Prithvi Gupta

Junior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India 


Research question: The proposed policy brief focuses on areas of bipartisan consensus in the US concerning UN reforms and the outcomes of the Summit of the Future. This brief also analyses/proposes pathways for the Biden Administration to build lasting cooperation on UNSC reforms — procedural and constitutional — with its reliable partners in the UN.

Kirsten Hartmann

Research Assistant, European and International Politics Programme, Bundeskanzler-Helmut-Schmidt-Stiftung

Research question: How will a future US administration affect the evolution of UN peace operations adapting to a changing environment?

© Michael Zapf 

Flávia Oliveira Ribeiro

PhD Candidate and Research Assistant, Academy for European Human Rights Protection, University of Cologne (Germany)


Research question: How can the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election improve the UN's ability to protect refugees and migrants?


© Arthur Lubig

Maya Ungar

UN Analyst at the International Crisis Group


Research question: What will the impact of the U.S. election be on the UN's liquidity crisis, and the subsequent ability to finance peace and security operations around the world
 

 

Our panel discussants

On the podium for Panel 1:

Dr Sascha Lohmann, German Institute for international Politics and Security

On the podium for Panel 2:

Dr Simone Wisotzki, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt

On the podium for Panel 3:

Dr Holger Niemann, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg

© IFSH/Matthies

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