FOTAR 2026

Since the end of the Second World War, transatlantic relations have been based on a commitment to a fundamental community of values and interests, a long-standing security partnership, and a willingness to share global responsibility. This Western partnership, which has been repeatedly put to the test over recent decades, has now been emphatically abandoned under the second Trump administration. Changes in domestic policy that had been taking place for some time, increasing divergences in norms and interests, and shifts in regional priorities in US foreign policy were, admittedly, noted on the European side, but apparently not regarded as relevant in the long term or as posing a threat to relations. Consequences, such as the development of a truly independent and effective foreign, security and defence policy, were pursued and driven forward only slowly and more out of a need to adapt than with sufficient conviction.

Now, however – faced with a dual turning point comprising Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and a fundamental shift in the role of the US, including the abandonment of the rules-based liberal international order – relations between Europe and the US stand at a critical juncture and face unprecedented changes. The Trump administration’s policy of equidistance – verging on hostility towards the EU – its threats and interference even towards allies, its blatant breaches of international law, its closeness to autocrats whilst democracy and the rule of law in the US are eroding, as well as the repeated questioning of the long-established security partnership within NATO, are forcing Europeans to swiftly make up for lost ground and become capable of acting independently. This means being able to uphold and implement European values, interests and principles even when they are not supported by the US, or are even directly threatened by it.

Europe faces a complex challenge: it is necessary to completely rethink transatlantic relations; to maintain cooperation and interdependence where they remain functionally necessary or strategically sensible, whilst at the same time preserving the enormous substance of these relations wherever possible and where desired by both sides, without succumbing to the ‘principle of hope’ or illusions. At the same time, in view of the policies of the current US administration, the EU and its Member States must define red lines and prepare consistent responses; above all, however, they must finally think and act strategically and independently. This is not only a prerequisite for safeguarding its own political, economic and social sovereignty, but also for resilient partnerships, both transatlantic and international. In an increasingly post-Western world, the EU faces a particular challenge in defining an independent role in international politics in order to act credibly and successfully towards both old and new partners. To this end, transatlantic relations must also be realigned in the light of significantly changed circumstances.

The key questions are therefore:

• What are the changed conditions in transatlantic relations (at the international/systemic level, the state and bilateral levels, and the domestic level) – what is structural and long-term, and what is politically driven by ‘Trump’ or MAGA?
• How can this realignment be successfully achieved, and under what conditions can transatlantic relations remain sustainable (and how)? What can and should be preserved, even under changed circumstances?
• What forms of transatlantic cooperation are still possible, legitimate and strategically sound in the 21st century under these changed circumstances – and across which levels, actors and issues must they be organised in future?
• If the governmental level in the US partially fails or becomes unreliable, transatlantic relations must be conceived more broadly in societal and institutional terms.
• Or, to put it another way: if, in the light of political and societal developments, government-to-government relations at federal level are merely one frame of reference amongst others, do sub-national levels, civil society actors, and economic and academic networks then gain in importance? And how can these relationships be addressed and shaped in a positive way?
• What would the establishment of an EU capable of taking effective action (in foreign, security and defence policy, as well as global governance) and the pursuit of strategic autonomy, including economic and technological sovereignty, mean for transatlantic relations?

The ‘FOTAR 2026’ project addresses these questions and challenges in US-EU relations against a backdrop of fundamentally changed circumstances. It examines the future of transatlantic relations across three key thematic areas:

1. ‘Peace, Security & the Future of NATO’
2. ‘Democracy, Freedom & Society’
3. ‘International Order, Sovereign Equality and (Climate) Justice in a Post-Western World’

FOTAR 2026 aims to provide an analytical assessment of the tensions described, the continuing interdependencies and the opportunities for cooperation. On this basis, the aim is to develop realistic, values-based and policy-relevant courses of action for European policy with regard to transatlantic relations.