US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been arguing passionately over domestic issues such as abortion rights, inflation and immigration in recent months. Although America's influence in the world is waning, the priorities and actions of the next American president will have profound foreign policy implications in many areas on the global stage. The FOTAR Policy Briefs use specific issues and conflicts to show that different scenarios are conceivable for international conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Among other things, our scholars examine the question of how the attitude of the democrats can contribute to a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. They are also looking, for example, at how the US elections could affect global strategies for preventing and prosecuting conflict-related sexual violence. Beyond the specific conflicts, however, more general observations can also be made.
Continuity vs. unpredictability
Most FOTAR scholars agree that the foreign policy of a President Harris will largely be characterised by continuity. They expect a continuation of Biden's foreign policy in many areas. As Vice President, Harris represents the policies of the last four years and there have been no signs of significant differences of opinion between her and Biden. Political continuity is also ensured by the appointment of foreign policy advisors: Harris' team is made up of the same people as under Obama and Biden. However, it is still unclear what exactly Harris' priorities will be if she is elected. Unlike Biden, Harris would enter the White House with very little foreign policy experience, and there would be no meaningful track record from which to derive her future actions.
The FOTAR Scholars also agreed on the uncertainties that a second Trump presidency would bring. In his first term, Trump did not implement some of his more radical proposals, such as the withdrawal of the USA from NATO. In a second term, however, he would have more loyalists in his cabinet from day one who would faithfully carry out his orders. There would be fewer "adults in the room" to moderate and try to contain Trump's disruptive impulses.
The Trump scenario and its great potential damage to transatlantic relations and the multilateral system prompted many of the FOTAR Scholars to make an oft-repeated demand: Europe must do more. They call for the EU to become more independent and take a greater leadership role in conflict resolution and strengthening the UN system.
Prospects for conflict resolution in 2024 and beyond
With regard to the war in Ukraine, the policy briefs make it clear that a President Harris would be a more reliable partner for Ukraine and its European supporters. She is expected to continue Biden's policy of clear support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. However, there is a possibility that a Republican-dominated Congress could prevent her administration from providing further financial and military aid to Ukraine. This emphasises the need for European states to increase their support for Ukraine to fill the gap left by the US. In a Trump scenario, US policy could be completely reversed and Europe would have to take over from the US and become the main supporter of Ukraine.
In the Middle East conflict, it is unlikely that either candidate would change the course of the war, although in the event of a Harris victory it is possible that she would take a tougher line on Israel. In the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, both candidates would take a similar approach, which is in line with US policy since Obama's presidency. However, Trump would likely resort to more aggressive and militaristic rhetoric, which would have the potential to exacerbate tensions between the US and China. In West Africa and the Sahel , US policy is at a critical juncture, particularly following the coup in Niger and the ruling junta's decision to end military co-operation with the US. Harris will likely seek to remain engaged in the region to continue US counter-terrorism efforts, but Trump may pull back due to his isolationist instincts and his belief that US interests in Africa are not at stake.
Headwinds for gender equality
According to the FOTAR Scholars, another Trump presidency is likely to severely hamper further cooperation in the area of gender equality. Much of the work in the field of gender equality and peacebuilding takes place within the UN framework. Trump could cut funding for the UN overall, but most likely only for programmes dealing with specific issues such as gender equality and youth. Harris, on the other hand, would continue the Biden administration's support for the Women's Peace and Security (WPS) agenda and other related agendas. She would perhaps even go a step further by emphasising a more transformative approach to gender relations in conflict and peacebuilding.
The role of the UN in the coming crises
Our FOTAR Scholars agree that while a President Harris would undoubtedly be more supportive of the UN than Trump, the UN's current problems are so profound that change is urgently needed - regardless of who is elected. Firstly, there is the general "liquidity crisis" caused by members not paying their dues in full and on time. As the largest contributor to the UN, the USA bears a large part of the responsibility for the decades of insufficient UN funding. Structural reforms of the UN budget are urgently needed.
Closely linked to this is the crisis in UN peacekeeping operations, as these have become ineffective due to budget deficits, the paralysis of the UN Security Council and a changed geopolitical environment. Overall, the UN has become less and less relevant in the area of peace and security and is in need of fundamental reform. Neither Harris nor Trump is likely to advance this agenda. However, a President Harris would at least not actively harm the multilateral agenda.
